NFL Picks: MNF Betting Advice for Cowboys vs. Giants

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NFL Picks: MNF Betting Advice for Cowboys vs. Giants
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Here are some NFL bets I will take to the window for the Monday Night Football game.

Let's start with the Monday Night preferred bet.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Today, 8:05 p.m. ET, ESPN/ABC/ESPN+

Line: Giants -1 | Total: 39 points

The Cowboys (1-1 straight-up, 1-1 against the spread, 0-2 Over-Under) will be on the road to take on their NFC East divisional rival Giants (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS, 0-2 Over-Under).

Before the preseason, the line opened with the Cowboys priced as a 2.5-point favorite with a total priced at 48 points. 

However, the loss of Cowboys All-Pro quarterback Dak Prescott has shifted the lines significantly to making the Giants a 1-point favorite and the total declining nine points to 39.

What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?

A line favoring the Giants by one and a total of 39 points implies a Giants 20 to 19 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that the Giants and Cowboys will both score 21 or more points.

  • The Giants are 80-91 SU and 92-77-2 against the spread (ATS) for 55% winning bets, including a 148-18-5 Over-Under record, good for 89% winning Over bets in games in which they and their foes each score 20 or more points.
  • The Cowboys are 100-81 SU, 82-91-8 ATS and 166-12-3 Over-Under, good for 93% winning Over bets in games where they and their foes each score 20 or more points.
  • Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy posted a 36-20-1 Over-Under record when coming off a game where his defense allowed three or fewer points in the first half.

I am betting the Over in this matchup currently priced at 39 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Quick Kicks

These are my best prop bets picks.

For the season, player prop bets are 10-3, making $388 per $50 bet.

  • Bet the Giants' Daniel Jones to throw an interception -115 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Cowboys' Cooper Rush Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +165 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Giants' Faniel Jones Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +200 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb Over 4.5 receptions -165 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Giants' Sequon Barkley Over 3.5 receptions +125 at PointsBet.

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.

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