NFL Picks: Thursday Night Betting, Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos

Empower Field at Mile High, 8:15 p.m. ET, Prime Video

Line: Broncos -3.5 | Total: 42 points

The Indianapolis Colts are hitting the road to challenge the Denver Broncos at Mile High Stadium in Denver, Colorado, in a Thursday night game on Prime Video.

The Colts announced Wednesday that star running back Jonathan Taylor will not play in this game due to an ankle injury. 

In addition to Taylor, starting middle linebacker Shaquille Leonard is out with a concussion, and starting free safety Julian Blackmon is sidelined with an ankle injury. 

Despite these setbacks, the NFL betting line has not moved as much I would have thought. However, Colts running backs Nyheim Hines and Phillip Lindsey are capable of offsetting the loss of Taylor.

The Broncos will be without starting right guard Billy Turner and starting right tackle Quinn Meinerz. Bother are recovering from lower leg injuries.

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Situational Trends and Angles

The betting line and total implies a 23-19 Broncos win. 

My predictive model is expecting the Colts to score at least 20 points, with more total yards than the Broncos and the same or fewer turnovers. 

In past road games in which the Colts achieved these performance measures, they have gone to a 21-2 straight-up (SU) record and 20-3 against-the-spread for 87% winning bets over the past five seasons. 

During that five-season period, the Broncos are just 1-22 SU and 5-18 ATS for 22% winning bets when allowing 20 or more points and getting outgained in total yards, while having the same or fewer turnovers.

I am betting the Colts +3.5 points as offered at BetMGM.

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DraftKings Sportsbook Bonus

Bet $5, Get $200 Instantly in Bonus Bets
+ Get a No Sweat NBA SGP Every Day of NBA Playoffs

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Must be 21+ and in a legal betting state to participate. T&Cs apply. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER

Quick Kicks

These are my best prop bets picks to tonight's game.

• Bet the Colts Matt Ryan Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +130 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
• Bet the Colts Matt Ryan Over 229.5 passing yards -106 at Caesars Sportsbook.
• Bet the Colts Nyheim Hines Over 3.5 receptions -135 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
• Bet the Colts DeForest Buckner Over .5 sacks +210 at BetRivers Sportsbook.

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

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