Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Games this Weekend

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Best Statistically-Based Bets to Make on Premier League Games this Weekend
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The English Premier League is in the stretch run and we’ll give you betting advice as the season winds down.

We’ve used the data from around the Premier League and examined the latest odds for the upcoming games to see what the most statistically-backed outcomes are set to be for the midweek games.

Liverpool vs. Everton: Over 3.5 Goals (49.1%), +122 FanDuel Sportsbook

Liverpool and Everton are set to meet in one of the most tense Merseyside derbies ever. The Toffees are still in danger of relegation, with the Reds battling it out to win every trophy available, and it makes this game perhaps the biggest derby for either side in Premier League history.

In 49.1% of games involving Liverpool this season, Over 3.5 goals has come in. It hammered Manchester United 4-0 in midweek. It beat Everton 4-1 earlier in the season at Goodison Park, Over 3.5 goals is expected here once more.

Manchester City vs. Watford: Mahrez to Score Anytime (46%), -130 FanDuel

Manchester City returned to the top of the Premier League table with an easy win over Brighton & Hove Albion on Wednesday, and Riyad Mahrez scored to give him 23 goals for this season.

Mahrez has been arguably City’s best player this year, and he has already surpassed his best goal scoring season from 2015/16 in that magical Leicester City title-winning campaign.

Eleven of his 23 goals have come in the league, in only 24 Premier League appearances. Mahrez is firing in a goal every other game at the moment, and is likely to get another against a Watford side that has conceded 62 goals in the league and 19 in its past five games against City.

Arsenal vs. Man United: Ronaldo to Score Anytime (61.8%), +170 DraftKings

Cristiano Ronaldo sat out of the 4-0 loss at Anfield and will be ready to return here at Arsenal. It’s a must-win game for both teams in the top four race, and off the back of another hat-trick last time out for the Portuguese, he’ll look to get on the scoresheet yet again.

In 16 games against the Gunners, Ronaldo has scored eight times, and he is United's top scorer this season with 21 goals in 34 games.

He’s also netted the first goal in 31.8% of games, has already scored a hat-trick this season against a north London outfit, Tottenham Hotspur, and even scored twice in the 3-2 home win against Arsenal in December.

Leicester vs. Villa: Both Teams to Score (60.2%), -158 BetMGM

It has been a crazy season for both Leicester City and Aston Villa, and good form has been hard to come by throughout much of the campaign for both. The Villains are in their worst position all season as they are in 15th with 46 goals conceded and 42 scored. The Foxes have scored 47, but also let in an alarming 51 in the league this campaign.

Both teams have scored in 69.4% of Leicester’s games so far, with the combined percentage from their fixtures this season at 60.2% to see both sides get a goal.

Villa has been getting battered lately and has lost its last four games by conceding nine goals. Before this, however, it beat Leeds United 3-0 and Southampton 4-0, and it can seemingly turn up the heat at random times under Steven Gerrard.

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Grant McQuillan

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