All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

January 25th, 2021

All-Time NFL Super Bowl Betting Trends: Every ATS and O/U

When the Kansas City Chiefs defeated the San Francisco 49ers in the 2020 Super Bowl, it marked the second straight season in which the favorite covered, continuing to reverse what had become an NFL betting trend in recent years.

Underdogs had dominated in Super Bowl betting for almost two decades during the 2000s and 2010s, winning against the spread in the NFL’s championship game 12 times in 17 years before the Chiefs and the New England Patriots in 2019 stemmed the tide.

Every Super Bowl Against the Spread Result

Super Bowl	ATS Result	Score	Line
LIV	Favorite	Chiefs 31, 49ers 20	Chiefs -1.5
LIII	Favorite	Patriots 13, Rams 3	Patriots -2.5
LII	Underdog	Eagles 41, Patriots 33	Patriots -4
LI	Favorite	Patriots 34, Falcons 28	Patriots -3
50	Underdog	Broncos 24, Panthers 10	Panthers -5
XLIX	Favorite	Patriots 28, Seahawks 24	Patriots -1
XLVIII	Underdog	Seahawks 43, Broncos 8	Broncos -2.5
XLVII	Underdog	Ravens 34, 49ers 31	49ers -4
XLVI	Underdog	Giants 21, Patriots 17	Patriots -3
XLV	Favorite	Packers 35, Steelers 31	Packers -2.5
XLIV	Underdog	Saints 31, Colts 17	Colts -4.5
XLIII	Favorite	Steelers 27, Cardinals 23	Steelers -7
XLII	Underdog	Giants 17, Patriots 14	Patriots -12.5
XLI	Favorite	Colts 29, Bears 17	Colts -7
XL	Favorite	Steelers 21, Seahawks 10	Steelers -4
XXXIX	Underdog	Patriots 24, Eagles 21	Patriots -7
XXXVIII	Underdog	Patriots 32, Panthers 29	Patriots -7
XXXVII	Underdog	Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21	Raiders -4
XXXVI	Underdog	Patriots 20, Rams 17	Rams -14
XXXV	Favorite	Ravens 34, Giants 7	Ravens -3
XXXIV	Push	Cardinals 23, Titans 16	Cardinals -7
XXXIII	Favorite	Broncos 34, Falcons 19	Broncos -7.5
XXXII	Underdog	Broncos 31, Packers 24	Packers -11.5
XXXI	Push	Packers 35, Patriots 21	Packers -14
XXX	Underdog	Cowboys 27, Steelers 17	Cowboys -13.5
XXIX	Favorite	49ers 49, Chargers 26	49ers -18
XXVIII	Favorite	Cowboys 30, Bills 13	Cowboys -10.5
XXVII	Favorite	Cowboys 52, Bills 17	Cowboys -6.5
XXVI	Favorite	Redskins 37, Bills 24	Redskins -7
XXV	Underdog	Giants 20, Bills 19	Bills -6.5
XXIV	Favorite	49ers 55, Broncos 10	49ers -12
XXIII	Underdog	49ers 20, Bengals 16	49ers -7
XXII	Underdog	Redskins 42, Broncos 10	Broncos -3.5
XXI	Favorite	Giants 39, Broncos 20	Giants -9.5
XX	Favorite	Bears 46, Patriots 10	Bears -10
XIX	Favorite	49ers 38, Dolphins 16	49ers -3
XVIII	Underdog	Raiders 38, Redskins 9	Redskins -3.5
XVII	Underdog	Redskins 27, Dolphins 17	Dolphins -3
XVI	Underdog	49ers 26, Bengals 21	Bengals -1
XV	Underdog	Raiders 27, Eagles 10	Eagles -3
XIV	Favorite	Steelers 31, Rams 19	Steelers -10.5
XIII	Favorite	Steelers 35, Cowboys 31	Steelers -3.5
XII	Favorite	Cowboys 27, Broncos 10	Cowboys -6
XI	Favorite	Raiders 32, Vikings 14	Raiders -4.5
X	Underdog	Steelers 21, Cowboys 17	Steelers -6.5
IX	Favorite	Steelers 16, Vikings 6	Steelers -3
VIII	Favorite	Dolphins 24, Vikings 7	Dolphins -6.5
VII	Favorite	Dolphins 14, Redskins 7	Dolphins -1.5
VI	Favorite	Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3	Cowboys -6
V	Underdog	Colts 16, Cowboys 13	Cowboys -2.5
IV	Underdog	Chiefs 23, Vikings 7	Vikings -12
III	Underdog	Jets 16, Colts 7	Colts -18
II	Favorite	Packers 33, Raiders 14	Packers -13.5
I	Favorite	Packers 25, Chiefs 10	Packers -14

Super Bowl ATS Betting Trends

The Chiefs, who enter Super Bowl 2021 as 3-point favorites at most top NFL betting sites, looks to make it three straight for the favorites. The Eagles were the last underdog to win, as four-point underdogs to Tom Brady and the mighty Patriots in 2018. Their 41-33 victory became the fifth underdog to win against the spread in seven years, and the eighth to win in 11 years.

Favorites once dominated in Super Bowls, winning 10 of 12 from 1992-2001 in what was the game’s blowout era — due in part to NFC supremacy over the Buffalo Bills, who not only lost four Super Bowls but went 0-4 against the spread. A tough run, but they at least had those conference championships to enjoy.

Things began to change in 2002, when the then-upstart Patriots knocked off the St. Louis Rams, who at -14 were the largest Super Bowl favorite since 1997.

That 20-17 New England victory kicked off a span of four straight Super Bowls in which underdogs won against the spread. Favorites haven’t won three straight in the NFL’s premier event since 1999-2001.

And the recent run of underdog victories had closed the overall record through 54 Super Bowls: 27 victories by favorites against the spread, 25 victories by underdogs and two pushes.

Every Super Bowl Over/Under Result

Super Bowl	Over/Under Result	Score	Line
LIV	Under	Chiefs 31, 49ers 20	54.5
LIII	Under	Patriots 13, Rams 3	56.5
LII	Over	Eagles 41, Patriots 33	49
LI	Over	Patriots 34, Falcons 28	58
50	Under	Broncos 24, Panthers 10	43.5
XLIX	Over	Patriots 28, Seahawks 24	47.5
XLVIII	Under	Seahawks 43, Broncos 8	47.5
XLVII	Over	Ravens 34, 49ers 31	47
XLVI	Under	Giants 21, Patriots 17	54
XLV	Over	Packers 35, Steelers 31	45
XLIV	Under	Saints 31, Colts 17	56.5
XLIII	Over	Steelers 27, Cardinals 23	46.5
XLII	Under	Giants 17, Patriots 14	54.5
XLI	Under	Colts 29, Bears 17	48
XL	Under	Steelers 21, Seahawks 10	47
XXXIX	Under	Patriots 24, Eagles 21	47.5
XXXVIII	Over	Patriots 32, Panthers 29	37.5
XXXVII	Over	Buccaneers 48, Raiders 21	44
XXXVI	Under	Patriots 20, Rams 17	53.5
XXXV	Over	Ravens 34, Giants 7	33
XXXIV	Under	Cardinals 23, Titans 16	48
XXXIII	Push	Broncos 34, Falcons 19	53
XXXII	Over	Broncos 31, Packers 24	49
XXXI	Over	Packers 35, Patriots 21	49.5
XXX	Under	Cowboys 27, Steelers 17	52
XXIX	Over	49ers 49, Chargers 26	54
XXVIII	Under	Cowboys 30, Bills 13	50.5
XXVII	Over	Cowboys 52, Bills 17	44.5
XXVI	Over	Redskins 37, Bills 24	48.5
XXV	Under	Giants 20, Bills 19	40.5
XXIV	Over	49ers 55, Broncos 10	48
XXIII	Under	49ers 20, Bengals 16	48
XXII	Over	Redskins 42, Broncos 10	47
XXI	Over	Giants 39, Broncos 20	40
XX	Over	Bears 46, Patriots 10	37.5
XIX	Over	49ers 38, Dolphins 16	53.5
XVIII	Under	Raiders 38, Redskins 9	48
XVII	Over	Redskins 27, Dolphins 17	36.5
XVI	Under	49ers 26, Bengals 21	48
XV	Under	Raiders 27, Eagles 10	37.5
XIV	Over	Steelers 31, Rams 19	36
XIII	Over	Steelers 35, Cowboys 31	37
XII	Under	Cowboys 27, Broncos 10	39
XI	Over	Raiders 32, Vikings 14	38
X	Over	Steelers 21, Cowboys 17	36
IX	Under	Steelers 16, Vikings 6	33
VIII	Under	Dolphins 24, Vikings 7	33
VII	Under	Dolphins 14, Redskins 7	33
VI	Under	Cowboys 24, Dolphins 3	34
V	Under	Colts 16, Cowboys 13	36
IV	Under	Chiefs 23, Vikings 7	39
III	Under	Jets 16, Colts 7	40
II	Over	Packers 33, Raiders 14	43
I	N/A	Packers 25, Chiefs 10	N/A

Super Bowl Over/Under Betting Trends

The Chiefs and 49ers put some points on the board, but with a high over/under set on the game it was not enough to allow Over bettors to cash.

In Super Bowl 54, the Patriots and Rams combined for just 16 points in Super Bowl 53, the lowest scoring Super Bowl in history. It also was the biggest gap between actual total and the sportsbooks' over/under line in history at 40 points. The result ended a trend of overs at five in six Super Bowls.

The only Super Bowl to finish under the number in that span was Denver’s 24-10 upset victory over the Panthers, a game that carried a total of 43.5. The under hit four straight years between 2005-08, but since then has won just five times in 12 seasons .

The Super Bowl over/under total has been at 43.5 or higher since 2004, the last year the title game featured an over/under in the 30s. In the 54 games from 1968-2020 — there was no over/under for Super Bowl I — the over has hit 26 times and the under 26 times, with one push.