Aspinall vs. Tybura UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night 224 Odds & Picks

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Aspinall vs. Tybura UFC Predictions: UFC Fight Night 224 Odds & Picks
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UFC Fight Night 224 in London Best Bets Today:

This weekend marks another edition of UFC Fight Night 224 in London with Saturday’s event taking place at the O2 arena in London. Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura headline the heavyweight main event, and the bout marks the return of Aspinall who hasn’t fought since a year ago. 

Aspinall suffered an injury in his loss to Curtis Blaydes and remained out since. Before the loss, he had a 5-0 record in the UFC and has a 12-3 professional MMA record. Tybura has won his last two matches and seven of his last eight. Fighting in his home country, Aspinall will be the crowd favorite. Expect a raucous environment as the English cheer on the return of their fellow countrymen. These types of hometown matches are unique for UFC fans to follow and make for a fun betting opportunity. 

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UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Silva Odds and UFC Best Bets

How To Watch UFC Fight Night 224 London

  • 🥊 UFC Fight Night: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
  • 📅 Date: July 22, 2023 
  • 🕙 Time: 3 PM ET
  • 🏟 Location: O2 Arena, London
  • 📺 TV Channel: ESPN+
  • 🏆 Main Event: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
  • 📊 Main Event: Tom Aspinall (12-3) vs. Marcin Tybura (24-7)


The main event for UFC Fight Night 224 in London features Tom Aspinall taking on Marcia Tybura. BetMGM Sportsbook currently has Aspinall as a -500 favorite, while Tybura is a +360 underdog.

UFC Fight Night 224 Main Event: The Fighters

Tom Aspinall was on a dominant stretch before his injury to Blaydes. He won his first five matches and ended all of them early. Aspinall recorded three knockouts and two submission victories, with four of the five finishes coming in the first round. He lands 66% of his strikes and has landed 111 significant strikes in the UFC. 

Aspinall averages 7.41 significant strikes landed per minute and defends significant strikes at a 64% rate. His average fight time is 2 minutes and 30 seconds. He’s known for dominating opponents with his stand-up, where he spends 57% of his time in the octagon. Aspinall likes to target the head area with 65% of his strikes going there. Elsewhere, 20% of his strikes go at the legs, and 15% are aimed at the body. 


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Marcin "Tybur" Tybura is a veteran Polish fighter who has been a pro since 2011. He has a record of 24 wins and seven losses. Of his 24 victories, 10 came in the first round. He has nine wins by knockout and six by submission. 

Tybura has a striking accuracy of 49% and a takedown accuracy of 24%. He lands 3.55 strikes per minute and absorbs 3.31. His average fight time is 12:40 He has a balanced way of earning his victories with nine coming by knockout (41%), seven by decision (32%) and six by submission (27%). Tybura mostly aims for the head with 66% of his strikes landing there, and with 20% and the body and 15% going for the legs.

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UFC Fight Night London Best Bets: Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura Odds & Picks

Saturday could be the start of a massive run by Aspinall. He was on a roll before he got hurt and showed he has the potential to become a star in the heavyweight division. Jon Jones and Stipe Miocic will be fighting for the heavyweight title in November, but with their long-term future remaining uncertain, it could leave space for a fighter like Aspinall to make a name for himself. 

Of course that would need to start with a win on Saturday. Aspinall has a background in boxing, wrestling and has a black belt in Brazilian jiu-jitsu. His versatility, and the added motivation around his return and fighting in front of a home crowd will give him an advantage against Tybura. Aspinall opened as a -450 favorite, but that line has now gone up to -500 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Three of Aspinall’s five finishes have come by knockout and it’s a method of victory I’d look to back once again when he faces Tybura. Out of Tybura’s six losses in the UFC, three have come by knockout with the other three occurring via decision. Motivated by the home crowd, I’d expect Aspinall to come out with a lot of energy and look to score a knockout (-165) at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Out of Aspinall’s six fights in the UFC, five have ended in the first round. I’d look to target the under 1.5 rounds (-185)  at FanDuel Sportsbook. 

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UFC Fight Night 224 Predictions

UFC Fight Night 224 London Main Card

The main card for UFC Fight Night London has numerous other exciting matches. In addition to the main event between Tom Aspinall and Marcin Tybura, there are other fights with promising potential. 

  • Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
  • Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko
  • Nathaniel Wood vs. Andre Fili
  • Paul Craig vs. Andre Munizz
  • Jai Herbert vs. Fares Ziam

The fight between Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko is worth watching. Both fighters are looking to bounce back from losses and continue to rise in the women’s flyweight division. 

Another interesting bout is between Paul Craig and Andre Muniz. Craig is ranked No. 9 in the middleweight division, while Muniz is currently at No. 14. Be sure to check in later in the week for more information and betting opportunities for these fights and the rest of the UFC London Fight Night card.

Paul Craig vs. Andre Muniz Odds, Picks & UFC Best Bets

Paul Craig and Andre Muniz are set to compete in a matchup with significant middleweight ranking implications. Craig has lost two straight fights and is known for being able to score quick victories. Of his 16 professional wins, 11 have come in the first round. 

Muniz is also coming off a loss but had won his last four matches before the defeat in February. He’s a tactician on the ground. Of his seven wins, four have come via submission with three of those coming from the armbar. Despite being the lower-ranked fighter, Muniz is the favorite on the betting boards. He is -225 to win at BetMGM Sportsbook, while Craig is at +185.

It may be worth it to back Muniz and go against a fading Craig. In his first-round knockout loss to Johnny Walker in January, Craig landed just three strikes before losing. His unanimous decision loss to Volkan Oezdemir wasn’t much better with Oezdemir holding a 72-33 strikes advantage. 

Betting Pick: Muniz to win (-200) at BetMGM Sportsbook


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Andre Fili vs. Nathaniel Wood Odds, Picks & UFC Best Bets

Nathaniel Wood is coming off winning his last two fights with two impressive victories over Charles Rosa and Charles Jourdain. Up next is the veteran Andre Fili, who has 19 fights in his UFC career — twice as many as Wood. 

Fili is an experienced fighter who has battled some of the top names in the division, including Max Holloway, Yair Rodriguez and Calvin Kattar. Another victory for Wood will continue to establish himself as a contender in the featherweight division. Wood is the betting favorite at -225 to win at BetMGM Sportsbook at -225 on the moneyline, while Fili is an underdog at +175. 

Fili presents a challenge with his length and reach. He has a reach of 74 inches and stands at 5’10, creating a four-inch height advantage and an extra five-inch reach advantage. This could play to Fili’s advantage since he has a boxing background. Fili lands 3.83 significant strikes per minute and has three career knockout victories in the UFC.

Wood averages 6.34 significant strikes per minute and has a 48% strike accuracy. He has yet to score a knockout in the UFC, but he does have three submission finishes. 

Instead of a picking side, I’m going to target the over-under for how long the fight lasts. At -225 to win at BetMGM Sportsbook, I will look to back the fight to go the distance at -200. Wood’s last four fights went to a decision, while four of Fili’s last five outcomes came to a decision. This trend plus the possibility Wood takes time to figure out Fili’s length and reach advantage could lend to a slower pace. I’d also expect Fili to lean on his experience with a patient approach and look to target a mistake from Wood. 

Betting Pick: Fight to go the distance (-200) at BetMGM Sportsbook

Molly McCann vs. Julija Stoliarenko Odds, Picks & UFC Best Bets

The UFC Fight Night 224 co-main event is a woman’s flyweight bout between Molly McCann and Julija Stoliarenko. Stoliarenko has a three-inch height advantage at 5’7 and a four-inch reach advantage at 66 inches. 

McCann holds a strikes landed per minute edge at 5.72, with Stoliarenko at 2.75. Both have similar average fight times with McCann at 11:39 and Stoliarenko shorter at 10.43. Sportsbooks also have McCann as the favorite at -225 at BetMGM. Stoliarenko is the underdog at +175 as she makes her first fight in the 125-pound division. 

Over her last 10 fights, McCann is 6-4 with two separate three-fight win streaks but was taken down in her last contest at UFC 281 by Erin Blanchfield. 

Stoliarenko’s form is worse. She’s 1-4 in her last five fights and was knocked out in the first round by Chelsea Chandler in Las Vegas. She’s hoping a new weight division can turn her UFC career around. 

The fight is a mix of styles with Stoliarenko the grappler, who averages 0.7 takedowns and 1.2 submissions per 15 minutes. Nine of her 10 wins have come via submission. 

On the other side, McCann is a striker. She lands 50% of her strike attempts and defends at a 63% rate. McCann’s last two wins came via knockout. Given her recent striking power, a bet on McCann to knock out Stoliarenko is a worthy play. Stoliarenko has been knocked out four times, and six of McCann’s 13 wins have come via knockout, including the aforementioned last two wins. 

Betting Pick: McCann by knockout +150 at BetMGM Sportsbook

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As we look forward to the thrilling UFC Fight Night 223 in London, there's another exciting development on the horizon for sports betting enthusiasts. Come this September, Kentucky will be launching online sports betting, paving the way for the emergence of new Kentucky sportsbooks. This opens up a new realm of opportunities for fans and bettors alike. Stay tuned for more updates on this front.



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