Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Bonus Offers & Picks and Player Props for 05/17
Best MLB Player Prop Bets Today:
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases: +105 at BetMGM Sportsbook
- Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 Strikeouts: -130 at bet365 Sportsbook
- Padres SP Yu Darvish To Record A Win: +130 at DraftKings Sportsbook
There are 15 games for Wednesday’s MLB slate, which means plenty of betting opportunities. Our expert team has identified a few of the best MLB prop bets across the best online betting sites in hope to help you make informed ahead of today’s action.
You can also check out the best MLB betting sites available through our Gambling.com site and explore the currently available bonuses and other features offered by the top sportsbooks.
Let's take a closer look:
Aaron Judge: Over 1.5 Total Bases (+105 @ BetMGM Sportsbook)
Whenever Aaron Judge's total bases prop is offered at plus money, it's an opportunity that shouldn't be missed, especially considering his recent impressive performance.
The Yankees' superstar has been on fire, hitting five home runs in his last four games, three of which were achieved in the ongoing series against the Blue Jays. Although his upcoming matchup against Chris Bassitt may seem challenging on paper, with Bassitt having not allowed a single run in his last two starts spanning 16 innings, we remain confident that the Yankees' hot bats can overcome the veteran right-handed pitcher.
Bassitt has shown vulnerability this season, particularly in games against the Cardinals where he surrendered nine runs. While he possesses considerable experience, we still believe it's a wise decision to take advantage of the value offered in betting on Judge's performance.
Furthermore, it's important to note that Bassitt currently ranks in the 35th percentile in expected ERA, indicating a potential opportunity for Judge to capitalize on. When Judge is in the zone and performing exceptionally well, it's only logical to ride the wave of his success, especially when there's an attractive payout involved.
So, let's all rise for the Judge and make him our best MLB prop bet of the day.
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Matthew Liberatore Over 4.5 Strikeouts (-130 @ bet365 Sportsbook)
Although Liberatore may not be considered an elite pitcher in the MLB, he does possess notable strikeout potential. In Triple-A, he has showcased an impressive 11.0 strikeouts per nine innings and a 30.3% strikeout rate across 46 innings. These numbers are significantly higher than the 7.3 strikeouts per nine innings and 17.4% strikeout rate he recorded in his limited MLB appearances last season.
What makes Liberatore particularly intriguing for this upcoming matchup is his elite opportunity against the Milwaukee Brewers. The Brewers currently hold the highest strikeout rate (30.7%) in the MLB when facing left-handed pitching this season. Furthermore, over the last 14 days, they rank fifth-highest in the league with a 24.7% strikeout rate. This sets the stage for Liberatore to exploit the Brewers' weakness and rack up strikeouts.
In the previous season, Liberatore demonstrated impressive whiff rates of 29% or higher on his slider, changeup, and curveball. While he did struggle against right-handed batters, it's worth noting that he performed significantly better when playing at home.
We may not be the biggest supporter of Liberatore, but we firmly believe that there is substantial value in taking the -130 @ bet365 Sportsbook. The simple truth is that the Milwaukee Brewers struggle immensely against left-handed pitching, and the set line of 4.5 strikeouts seems a bit too conservative.
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Padres SP Yu Darvish To Record A Win (+130 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Yu Darvish has a strong chance of recording a win in the matchup against the KC Royals and it's quite surprising that we're offered enticing +130 odds on this prop bet, considering that the San Diego Padres are heavy favorites (-285) on their home turf.
Darvish has established himself as one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball. In 5 out of his 7 starts this season, he has allowed two or fewer earned runs, showcasing his reliability on the mound. Against a struggling Kansas City offense that ranks 27th in wRC+ this season, Darvish shouldn't encounter many difficulties.
Furthermore, the formidable Padres offense should provide Darvish with ample run support, particularly against Kansas City right-handed pitcher Carlos Hernandez. Hernandez holds a career ERA of 5.05, and in the previous season, he pitched 56 innings with a daunting 7.39 ERA.
Considering the likelihood of this game becoming a bullpen affair for the Royals, with Hernandez only pitching for an inning or two, the Padres stand to benefit greatly. Currently, Kansas City's bullpen possesses the fourth-highest ERA and the tenth-highest xFIP across all of baseball.
Note the earlier start time of the KC Royals and San Diego Padres matchup on Wednesday so you don't miss out on the opportunity to place your bets early.
For those looking to place their best MLB prop bets today, consider wagering on Yu Darvish to secure a win at +130 odds, available at +130 with DraftKings Sportsbook.
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