Major League Baseball Betting Advice for July 7
Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League Best Bet
New York Yankees –160 at Boston Red Sox +150
7:10 p.m. ET
The Yankees travel to Massachusetts to face longtime American League East rival Boston in the first of a four-game series. This matchup is the most heated rivalry in MLB and perhaps in all sports.
The Yankees have steamrolled everyone on their schedule this year to achieve a 13-game lead in the AL East standings, but I feel the betting markets have significantly overvalued them.
So, the opportunity is to back the underdog in these matchups, and, in this one, the underdog is Boston.
MLB Betting Angle
Here is a highly profitable MLB betting system that has earned a 26-12 record for 68.4% winning bets on the moneyline, averaging a +145 underdog wager and producing a 68% ROI over the last five seasons.
The requirements are:
- Bet on underdogs between 125 and 175 in a divisional matchup.
- Bet on underdogs outscoring their opponents by at least .5 runs-per-game.
- Bet on underdogs coming off a loss of at least four runs.
The Red Sox are a +150 underdog in Thursday’s game, coming off a 7-1 loss to the Tampa Bay Rays, and have outscored their opponents by an average of .64 runs-per-game.
I am going to the window betting the Red Sox, using the moneyline currently offered at +150 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
National League Best Bet
San Francisco Giants +120 at San Diego Padres -130
9:40 p.m ET
The Giants will start a four-game series against National League West rival San Diego tonight.
Both teams have been struggling at the plate, but I see a golden opportunity to bet the Over in this matchup.
The Giants ended a six-game losing skid with a hard-fought 7-5 win at the Arizona Diamondbacks on Wednesday night. However, the Giants are batting just .196 and scoring 3.0 runs per game over their last seven games.
The Padres are having the same struggles, batting .225 and scoring 2.3 runs per game over their last seven games.
I like the Over (-102) in this one, at seven combined runs, as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Trends and Angles That Support a Best Bet on the Over
- Giants skipper Gabe Kapler is 25-9 Over after his team lost five or six of their last seven games.
- Kapler is 11-2 Over after two consecutive losses to the current opponent where his team scored two or fewer runs in each loss.
- The Padres are 39-23 Over following a five-game stretch with a horrid .285 or lower on-base-percentage in games played over the last two seasons.
- Bet Boston’s J.D. Martinez to hit a double at +370 at DraftKings
- Bet the Phillies' Bailey Falter Under 2.5 earned runs at -130 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Marlins' Avisail Garcia to have at least two hits at +290 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Marlins' Daniel Castano Over 2.5 earned runs at -149 at Caesars.
- Bet the Dodgers' Tony Gonsolin Over 1.5 earned runs at -120 at BetMGM.
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