MLB Best Bets For July 22
Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
Chicago Cubs (+110) at Philadelphia Phillies (-135)
7:05 p.m. ET
Since June 1, the Phillies are 28-14 and have the fourth-best return on investment (ROI) at 18.32%.
The Cubs' playoff aspirations are nonexistent after going 15-28 since June 1, and having a -22.26% ROI.
The Cubs won two of three games against the NL Central rival Milwaukee in early July, but then went on a nine-game losing skid before defeating the New York Mets 3-2 in their last game before the All-Star break.
The Philadelphia Phillies are in the playoff race, tied with the St. Louis Cardinals for the third and final wild-card berth.
The Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Phillies.
- The Cubs are 13-39 when facing a team averaging fewer than seven runners left on base per game in games played over the last two seasons.
- The Phillies are 38-24 when facing a team with a season-to-date on-base percentage of .325 or lower in games played this season.
- Phillies starting pitcher Kyle Gibson is 17-5 in home games over the past two seasons.
I am betting the Phillies using the moneyline offered at -130 at BetMGM.
American League Best Bet
Houston Astros (-125) at Seattle Mariners (+105)
10:10 p.m. ET
The Mariners were on a 14-game winning streak when they got to the All-Star break. Rest is quite important during the break, but the Mariners have lost momentum.
They’re taking on an Astros team coming off a doubleheader sweep of the New York Yankees and then had to travel last night to Seattle.
Since 2006, only three teams have won 14 or more consecutive games, and these teams have gone 3-3, averaging a -111 moneyline wager.
Cleveland had its 14-game win streak snapped with a loss to Toronto. St. Louis won 17 games last season before losing at home to Milwaukee. The Braves won 14 straight this season before it ended in a road loss to the Cubs.
The Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Astros.
- Teams on a 10 or more game winning streak and priced as home dogs have posted a 14-8 record, averaging a +135-underdog wager for a 45% ROI.
- If priced as a 140 or lower-underdog wager has produced a 10-3 record averaging a +117 wager and a 67% ROI.
- The Mariners are 15-3 when facing a powerful hitting opponent that averages 1.25 or more home runs per game this season.
I am going to the window to bet the Mariners using the moneyline offered at +110 at DraftKings.
Here are some player prop bets to consider.
- Bet the Phillies’ Rhys Hoskins to have 2+ hits +230 at FanDuel.
- Bet Orioles pitcher Tyler Wells to earn the win +185 at PointsBet.
- Bet Dodgers pitcher Tyler Anderson Under 2.5 earned runs allowed +100 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Padres’ Manny Machado to have 2+ hits +270 at FanDuel.
- Bet the Blue Jays’ George Springer to have 2+ hits +185 at FanDuel.
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