MLB Betting Advice for July 28

MLB Betting Advice for July 28
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

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American League Best Bet

Detroit Tigers (+180) at Toronto Blue Jays (-225)

7:07 p.m. ET

The Detroit Tigers come into this series against Toronto playing their best ball of the season. The Blue Jays are also hot, winning eight of their past 10.

The Blue Jays bullpen has posted a 1.53 ERA and a .921 WHIP over their last seven games in 29 2/3 innings. The Tigers pen has been the bright spot for the team all season, with a 3.09 ERA and a 1.198 WHIP in 99 games.

The Tigers will start left-hander Tyler Alexander, who is 2-3 with a 4.05 ERA. He has had success in his three career starts against the Blue Jays posting a 2.16 ERA. 

Toronto counters with left-hander Yusei Kikuchi, who is 3-5 with a 5.12 ERA. He has struggled at times this season and went on the injured list on July 6 with a neck strain. In his last rehab work, he threw five scoreless innings allowing two hits for Triple-A Buffalo.

Because of the bullpens, I am betting the Under 9.5 runs paying -115 vig at BetMGM.

 

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies (-200) at Pittsburgh Pirates (+165)

7:05 p.m. ET

The battle for Pennsylvania begins as the Phillies travel to Pittsburgh for a four-game series. 

Philadelphia will start ace Zack Wheeler, who is 8-5 in 19 starts with a 2.78 ERA and a 1.041 WHIP, including 22 walks and 114 strikeouts. 

The Pirates are scoring 2.7 runs per game and batting an anemic .216 over their past seven games. So, Wheeler will go at least six innings in this start and may not allow an earned run.

The MLB Betting Angle of the Day

The following betting angle has produced a 65-37-3 Under record, good for 65% winning bets over the past five seasons. The requirements are:

  • Bet the Over with a home starting pitcher who averages less than five innings per start.
  • The home team’s bullpen has struggled, posting a 1.75 or higher WHIP over their past 10 games.

I am going to the window betting the Under offered at eight runs paying -120 at BetMGM.

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Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Angels' Shohei Ohtani Under 4.5 hits allowed paying -110 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Giants' SP Alex Wood Under 1.5 earned runs allowed paying +130 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Phillies' Kyle Schwarber to have two+ hits paying +250 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Red Sox' Jose Ramirez to hit a home run paying +390 at BetRivers.
  • Bet the Dodgers' Mookie Betts Over 1.5 total bases paying -140 at DraftKings.
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