MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 14

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 14
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

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American League Best Bet

Tampa Bay Rays +100 at Toronto Blue Jays -120

7:07 p.m. ET

After splitting a doubleheader Tuesday, the Rays and Blue Jays meet again today for the third game of this rare five-game series. 

These teams have split the eight games played in Toronto, including a 6-2 Over-Under record.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Rays using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The Blue Jays are 14-19, losing 19 units on the moneyline, when facing an AL foe scoring 4.4 or more runs-per-game (RPG) in the second half of this season.
  • Tampa Bay starter Drew Rasmussen is 11-2, making 10 units on the moneyline, when facing opponents that strike out an average of seven or more times per game in the second half of the past two seasons.
  • The Blue Jays are 18-27, losing 12 units on the moneyline, when the moneyline has priced them between a +125 underdog and a -125 favorite this season.

I am betting the Rays on the moneyline at +105, as offered at BetRivers Sportsbook.

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National League Best Bet

Philadelphia Phillies +115 at Miami Marlins -130

6:40 p.m. ET

The Phillies have a 1.5-game lead over the San Diego Padres for the second of three NL wild-card berths. 

The Milwaukee Brewers trail the Padres by two games for the third berth. So, the Phillies are in good shape to make the postseason for the first time since 2011.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angle supports a moneyline wager on the Phillies.

  • The Phillies are 22-13, making 11.1 units on the moneyline, when facing an NL foe batting .245 or lower.
  • The Phillies are 28-5, making 21 units on the moneyline, when facing a foe that averages 2.75 or fewer extra-base hits per game in the second half of this season.
  • The Marlins are 8-29, losing 19 units on the moneyline, when facing a winning record opponent in the second half of this season.

I am going to the window betting the Phillies on the moneyline -135, as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

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Quick Pitches

Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

  • Bet the Cubs' Seiya Suzuki to get 2+ hits +310 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Cubs' Drew Smyly Under 2.5 earned runs allowed –110 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Diamondbacks' Zach Davies Over 5.5 hits allowed +105 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Cardinals' Yadier Molina to get 2+ hits +500 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Red Sox' J.D. Martinez to get 2+ hits +250 at FanDuel.

In the past 93 prop bet suggestions, I have a 45-48 record, making a profit of $401 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,005 per $100 wager. The results over more than three months have produced a 53% return on investment (ROI).

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