MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 7

MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 7
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

 

Risk Free Bet up to $1,000
Bonus Code: GAMBLINGCOM

National League Best Bet

Arizona Diamondbacks +180 at San Diego Padres -210

8:40 p.m. ET

The Padres are fighting to hold on to a Wild Card berth.  

The Diamondbacks have tied or won four consecutive road series and are 8-3 in those games.

So how should things shape up in this game?

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Diamondbacks using the moneyline in this matchup.

  • The D-Backs are 40-35, making 17 units on the moneyline, when facing a starter that averages 5.5 or fewer hits allowed per start this season.
  • The Padres are 32-50, losing 41 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League team batting .250 or worse in the second half of the past two seasons.
  • San Diego’s Yu Darvish is 3-12, losing 19.5 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League team batting .250 or worse the past two seasons.

I am betting the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at +180, as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

Up to $1,250 on Caesars + 1,000 Tier Credits + 1,000 Reward Credits
Promo Code: GAMBLINGFULL

American League Best Bet

Texas Rangers +250 at Houston Astros -300

8:10 p.m. ET

From an initial glance, it would appear that the Astros will win this game by more than a single run over the losing-record Rangers. 

However, we are at that point of the season providing regular major upsets. This is a contrarian bet knowing the Rangers have the worst record at 10-28 for 26% in one-run games this season.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational betting angle supports a run line wager on the Rangers tonight.

  • The Rangers are 21-3, making 19 units on the run line, when facing an American League starter sporting a WHIP of 1.100 WHIP.
  • The Astros are 20-38, losing 24 units on the run line, when facing a team with a win percentage between 38% and 45% in the past two seasons.
  • The Rangers are 21-7, making 13.5 units on the run line, when the vig has been between +135 and -135 this season.

I am going to the window betting the Rangers on the +1.5-run line +112 offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.

 

4 Risk Free Bets Up To $200 Each

Quick Pitches

These are the Player Prop Bets to consider on today’s schedule.

  1. Bet the Twins’ Max Kepler to get a hit -165 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  2. Bet the Twins’ Joe Ryan Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
  3. Bet the Phillies’ Bryce Harper to get 2+ hits +230 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
  4. Bet the Marlins’ Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

In the past 76 prop bet picks, I have a 39-37 record, making a new-high profit of $291 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,455 per $100 wager. The results over the past three months have produced a 53% return on investment.

 

×