MLB Picks: Betting Advice for Sept. 7
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Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for two games each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
National League Best Bet
Arizona Diamondbacks +180 at San Diego Padres -210
8:40 p.m. ET
The Padres are fighting to hold on to a Wild Card berth.
The Diamondbacks have tied or won four consecutive road series and are 8-3 in those games.
So how should things shape up in this game?
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a best bet on the Diamondbacks using the moneyline in this matchup.
- The D-Backs are 40-35, making 17 units on the moneyline, when facing a starter that averages 5.5 or fewer hits allowed per start this season.
- The Padres are 32-50, losing 41 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League team batting .250 or worse in the second half of the past two seasons.
- San Diego’s Yu Darvish is 3-12, losing 19.5 units on the moneyline, when facing a National League team batting .250 or worse the past two seasons.
I am betting the Diamondbacks on the moneyline at +180, as offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
American League Best Bet
Texas Rangers +250 at Houston Astros -300
8:10 p.m. ET
From an initial glance, it would appear that the Astros will win this game by more than a single run over the losing-record Rangers.
However, we are at that point of the season providing regular major upsets. This is a contrarian bet knowing the Rangers have the worst record at 10-28 for 26% in one-run games this season.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational betting angle supports a run line wager on the Rangers tonight.
- The Rangers are 21-3, making 19 units on the run line, when facing an American League starter sporting a WHIP of 1.100 WHIP.
- The Astros are 20-38, losing 24 units on the run line, when facing a team with a win percentage between 38% and 45% in the past two seasons.
- The Rangers are 21-7, making 13.5 units on the run line, when the vig has been between +135 and -135 this season.
I am going to the window betting the Rangers on the +1.5-run line +112 offered at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Quick Pitches
These are the Player Prop Bets to consider on today’s schedule.
- Bet the Twins’ Max Kepler to get a hit -165 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Bet the Twins’ Joe Ryan Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +110 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Bet the Phillies’ Bryce Harper to get 2+ hits +230 at FanDuel Sportsbook.
- Bet the Marlins’ Trevor Rogers Over 2.5 earned runs allowed +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
In the past 76 prop bet picks, I have a 39-37 record, making a new-high profit of $291 per $20 pizza-money wager or $1,455 per $100 wager. The results over the past three months have produced a 53% return on investment.
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