MLB Picks: What to Make of the Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Series

MLB Picks: What to Make of the Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres Series
© USA Today

To help with your MLB betting, we take a look at today's playoff game.

 

Philadelphia Phillies at San Diego Padres

Game 1, 8:03 p.m. ET, FS1

Petco Park, San Diego

San Diego is starting Yu Darvish (16-8, 3.10 ERA, 0.95 WHIP, 197 strikeouts) and Philadelphia is countering with Zack Wheeler (12-7, 2.82 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 163 strikeouts).

The Padres are priced at +325 and the Phillies at +350 to win the World Series at BetMGM. 

Trends and Angles

  • The road team is 7-21 (25% +145 moneyline) in Game 1 of the NLCS.
  • The Under is 29-20-1 in the playoffs when one of the teams has a starter with an ERA of less than 2.00 over his last three starts and has a season-to-date WHIP of 1.1 or lower.
  • The Under is 19-10-1 (65%) in the playoffs when the road team is starting a pitcher with an ERA of 2 or lower in his last three starts and with a WHIP of 1.1 or lower.
  • The Padres are 8-24 (25) on the run line when favored up to -150 on the moneyline and facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season.
  • The Padres starter Yu Darvish is 9-0-1 Under when the line has been between -100 and -150 this season.

I am betting the Phillies in Game 1 of the NLCS using the moneyline priced at +100 and I am betting the Phillies to win the NLCS at +110 as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts) on the Phillies on the moneyline.
  • If the Padres score first and not more than 3 runs in total during the first three innings, bet the remaining 50% using the live in-game moneyline price on the Phillies.

Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider tonight.

  • Bet the Guardians' Aaron Civale to get the win +140 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Guardians' Josh Naylor Over 1.5 total bases +150 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Yankees' Harrison Bader to hit a home run +900 at BetRivers
  • Bet that there will be a run scored in the first inning of the Guardians vs Yankees Game 5 +100 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Guardians' win by 3 runs exact +1150 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Paderes' Yu Darvish Under 5.5 strikeouts –120 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Phillies' Bryce Harper to get 3+ hits +1700 at FanDuel.
  • Bet the Phillies' Nick Castellanos to get 3+ hits +2000 at FanDuel.

In 189 prop bets, I have an 83-106 record, making a profit of $469 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,395 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 61% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs.

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