MLB Picks: Who Takes Control, Atlanta or Philadelphia?

MLB Picks: Who Takes Control, Atlanta or Philadelphia?
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To get you ready for your MLB betting, we take a look at today's games.

 

Atlanta Braves +105 at Philadelphia Phillies -120

Today, 4:37 p.m. ET, FS1

The Phillies will look to take a 2-1 lead against the Braves. They start right-handed ace Aaron Nola, who has an 11-13 regular season record.

Don't be fooled, Nola has been one of the top starters in MLB this season. The Braves will counter with Spencer Strider (11-5, 2.67 ERA regular season).

Philadelphia's Kyle Schwarber led the National League with 46 home runs, but has struggled in the playoffs, going 0-of-16 with eight strikeouts. Rhys Hoskins, who bats second in the lineup behind Schwarber, is 1-for-18 with six strikeouts. 

I am expecting Schwarber and Hoskins to end their hitting slumps at their hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park. When either or both of those hitters are on base you then have j.T. Realmuto, Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, and Alec Bohm with high-percentage run-scoring opportunities.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • Phillies starter Nola is 2-1 with a 1.86 ERA and .620 WHIP with one walk and 23 strikeouts over his last three starts.
  • Braves' starter Strider has not pitched in 44 days. Pitchers who have had at least 14 days of rest and starting a road playoff game have gone just 8-15, losing nine units on the moneyline.

I am betting on the Phillies using the moneyline priced at -120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Live In-Game Betting Strategy

  • Bet 50% of your normal bet amount ‘pre-flop’ (before the game starts)
  • If during the first two innings the Braves score first, bet the remaining 50% using the LIVE in-game moneyline, which will be somewhere around making the Phillies a +130 underdog on the moneyline.

Check out the betting opportunity for the Cleveland Guardians and the New York Yankees we put together before the rain out.

 

Quick Pitches

Here are some player prop bets to consider today.

  • Bet the Guardians' Shane Bieber Over 4.5 strikeouts -149 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Guardians' Andres Gimenez to hit a home run +850 at Unibet.
  • Bet the Phillies' Nola Over 6.5 strikeouts –150 at Caesars.
  • Bet the Padres' Blake Snell Over 6.5 strikeouts –105 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the Dodgers' Mookie Betts to hit a home run +450 at FanDuel.

In 178 prop bets, I have a 79-99 record, making a profit of $525 per $20 pizza-money wager or $2,635 per $100 wager. The results have produced a 71% return on investment (ROI) for the 2022 MLB season and playoffs.

 

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