Should You Bet Against the Yankees, Even for a Game, Right Now?
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice each day on an American League and National League game. We’ll throw in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.
American League
New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins
7:40 p.m. ET
The Minnesota Twins lost the first game of the series to the New York Yankees, which is not a big deal because it appears everyone loses to the Yankees.
However, being a professional bettor, we have short memories. When a situational angle presents itself over many consecutive games in which we are fading the same team, yesterday’s results matter very little.
Fading elite teams favored on the road by -150 or more on the moneyline that have outscored their opponent by 100 or more runs on the season and are taking on a foe that has a winning record and coming off a loss in their previous game have been a money-burning 38-30. Those teams are averaging a -170 moneyline favorite and losing 12.5 units and an ugly -14 return-on-investment (ROI) over the past 25 seasons.
In this situation, betting the Over has earned an outstanding 46-22 for 68% winning bets over the last 25 seasons.
I am betting the Twins at +160 on the moneyline and the Over nine runs at -115.
National League
Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers
8:10 p.m. ET
Aaron Nola will start for the Phillies tonight. Nola has posted a 2.63 ERA in nine career appearances against the Brewers and that is the lowest ERA he has compiled against any other National League opponent.
The Phillies came from behind in the first game of this three-game series with two home runs in the ninth and ended a historic streak by the Brewers' closer, Josh Hader.
Before last night, Hader had recorded 40 consecutive scoreless appearances.
The Phillies' offense looks strong on paper, but has yet to play at an elite level consistently.
They are starting to come together, led by reigning National League MVP Bryce Harper.
Harper leads the National League with 33 extra-base hits and each of his last five hits have been for extra bases, including three homers and two doubles.
The Phillies bullpen has a 2.13 ERA and 0.868 WHIP over their past seven games.
The Phillies are 6-0, making eight units per unit wagered on the moneyline when on the road and following a win of two or fewer runs.
I am betting the Phillies on the moneyline at -135 as offered at BetMGM.
Other Bets I Like Tonight
The following list are my best MLB Player Prop Bets:
- Bet the Angels’ Reid Detmers on the Over of 3.5 strikeouts at -150 as offered at BetMGM.
- Bet the Red Sox JD Martinez to hit a home run at +275 as offered by BetMGM.
- Bet the Mariners Logan Gilbert Over 4.5 strikeouts at -160 as offered at BetMGM.
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