Time To Get Bullish on the Philadelphia Phillies

Time To Get Bullish on the Philadelphia Phillies
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Throughout the season, we will give you MLB betting advice each day, throwing in a few quick pitches for prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

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National League

Philadelphia Phillies at Milwaukee Brewers

8:10 p.m. ET

My predictive models have become increasingly bullish on the Philadelphia Phillies in recent weeks on a high-level overview.

I see an opportunity to start backing them against the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. 

The enthusiasm is not based on the firing of their skipper Joe Girardi, but on the fact that, on paper, they have many talented hitters and pitchers. 

BetMGM is offering the Phillies at +1500 to win the NL East and I am betting a 1% ‘pizza money’ sized wager on those odds.

Series With Brewers Starts Tonight

Left-hander Ranger Suarez will start for the Phillies in the first game of the series against Milwaukee. Suarez has posted a 4.69 ERA and a 1.562 WHIP in 10 starts with 22 walks and 42 strikeouts. 

Jason Alexander is making his second start of the season for the Brewers. It might not be good news if he gets in trouble. The bullpen has performed poorly over their past seven games, posting a 4.45 ERA and a 1.114 WHIP and they have batted even worse, scoring just 3.6 RPG on a .186 batting average. 

I see the Phillies’ offense getting to Alexander and then scoring more runs against a highly suspect Brewer’s bullpen.

 

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The Trends and Angles Betting Opportunity

Here is a list of the situational trends and angles that support a wager on the Phillies

  • The Brewers are 29-31, losing 12.8 units on the moneyline when facing a left-handed starting pitcher in games over the past two seasons.
  • The Brewers are 9-11, losing 5.31 units when facing a left-handed starter this season.
  • The Over is 13-7 when the Brewers have faced a left-handed starter this season

I am betting the Under 8.5 runs at -105 as offered by the BetMGM Sportsbook.

 

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American League

New York Yankees at Minnesota Twins

7:40 p.m. ET

The New York Yankees are coming off three-game sweeps of the Angels and the Detroit Tigers in a 6-0 home stand. 

However, they will face a more difficult test against the Minnesota Twins.

The Betting Angles of the Day

The following betting trends and angles support the wager I am placing on the Twins.

  • Road teams that have outscored their opponents by at least 100 or more runs in games played in June are 78-78, losing 20 units on the moneyline (Fading them has earned a 12% ROI).
  • These juggernaut road teams are 9-15, losing seven units on the moneyline if taking on a host that has won 55% or more of their games on the season.
  • The Over with these road teams on a five or more game winning streak are 14-7 for 67% winning bets.

I am betting the Twins on the moneyline and the Twins to win this series against the Yankees.

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Other Bets I Like Tonight

  1. I like betting the Minnesota Twins first five at +135 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
  2. like betting the Baltimore Orioles first five at -105 as offered at Bet MGM.
  3. I like betting Miami Marlins' pitcher Edward Cabrera Over 5.5 strikeouts at +105 as offered by BetMGM.
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