Brooklyn Nets at Philadelphia 76ers Betting Analysis and Predictions
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Thursday night in South Philadelphia at the Wells Fargo Center, the 76ers will host the Brooklyn Nets for the first time since the blockbuster trade that brought James Harden and Paul Milsap to the 76ers and sent Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, Andre Drummond, and two first-round draft picks to the Nets.
Simmons demanded a trade shortly after last year’s second-round exit losing to the Atlanta Hawks.
It was a painful divorce and the 76ers fans will let Simmons know what they think.
The NBA betting markets opened with the 76ers installed as a 4.5-point favorite and the line has remained static at that price.
The total has seen a lot of Over interest and has moved the line from an opening of 229.5 points to the current 234.5 points.
How do These Teams perform with a Total of 230+ Points?
This season, in games the Nets played and had a total of 230 or more points has produced a 6-8 straight-up record and against the spread, including an even 7-7 Over-Under record.
This is only the third game this season that the 76ers have played in a game with a posted total of 230 or more points. So, little value is provided with these short-term results.
Over the past three seasons, we get a better and more meaningful sample. The 76ers are 10-4 straight-up and 9-5 against the spread, including a 5-9 over-under result.
So, that points to betting the Under and the 76ers. The Nets are 49-29 straight-up and 46-32 against the spread including a 35-43 Over-Under record when the total has been 230 or more points in games played over the last three seasons.
The Bet to Make
The following trends are the historical results based on the measures the models project to occur in this game tonight.
The Nets are 7-32 Over-Under in the past three seasons and 2-12 Over-Under this season when they have scored between 104 and 109 points.
Both teams are expected to make no more than 22 3-pointers tonight. When the 76ers have been in games where they and their opponent combined for 22 or fewer 3-pointers, the Over-Under has been a highly profitable 37-74-5 in favor of the Under and 67% winning Under wagers spanning the last three seasons.
The Nets’ Over-Under is 18-48-2 in favor of the Under for 72% winning wagers when they and their opponents have made 22 or fewer three-pointers over the last three seasons.
My predictive models are pointing toward an Under wager.
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