NBA Futures Odds: Favorites to Win the Western Conference
NBA futures are increasingly popular on NBA betting platforms. Futures are bets on an event happening in the future, such as the conference finals champion, as we’re discussing here.
How the Western Conference Teams Finish By Record
The predictive models that I have developed over 25 years project the Phoenix Suns to have the best record in the NBA at the end of the season at 65-17.
The Golden State Warriors are projected to have 57 wins and the Memphis Grizzlies are next with an expected total of 54 wins.
Based on my power ratings, the top three teams at the end of the regular season will be in the Western Conference.
If the Suns hosted the Warriors in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals right now, they would be a five-point favorite.
If Phoenix Suns played the Utah Jazz, they would be favored by 6 1/2 points.
Although the Grizzlies are the trending in vogue best bets to win the NBA Finals, they are a distant fourth in the Western Conference team rankings and I do not think they will be one of the teams in the Conference Finals.
Where is the Value in the Futures Market?
BetMGM Sportsbook has terrific futures odds pages and currently prices the Warriors as the team to beat in the West.
Golden State is +175 to win the West and advance to the NBA Finals. However, the Suns are projected by my predictive models to earn the No. 1 seed, which implies they would have home-court advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Suns' home record this season is an NBA-best 26-5 straight-up and they are just 15-16 ATS, for 48% winning bets.
The Warriors are right on their heels sporting a 26-6 straight-up record and are 17-13-2 against the spread, for 57% winning bets.
The difference between the Suns and Warriors is that the Suns have been a much better road team this season, sporting an NBA-best 23-5 straight-up record and third-best against the spread record of 18-10 for 64% winning bets.
Odds to win the Western Conference
|Golden State Warriors||+175|
|Los Angeles Lakers||+1600|
|Los Angeles Clippers||+5000|
|New Orleans Pelicans||+25000|
|San Antonio Spurs||+25000|
|Portland Trail Blazers||+30000|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||+50000|
How About the Warriors?
The Warriors have been the darling of the public betting community, which is why they are favored to win the conference title.
There is no reason not to believe they can pull it off, since they have done it before and they now have Klay Thompson back on the floor.
However, the professional bettors searching for value will identify the Suns and Jazz as the best to make for the winner of the West.
Do the Utah Jazz Have a Chance?
Utah has not played all that well in January, going 4-12 straight-up and 5-11 against the spread. However, they bounced back with a 6-1 straight-up and against the spread record up to the break.
The Jazz are playing superior defense in these games, as evidenced by their 6-1 Under record. They will not be able to catch the Suns or Warriors in the conference standings, but I expect them to be an extremely strong No. 3 seed come playoff time.
To sum things up, the bet I will be making, and they are only pizza-money sized bets of $20, will be on the Utah Jazz and the Phoenix Suns to win the Western Conference and advance to the NBA Finals.
Check out how I pick the Eastern Conference futures.
Odds to win NBA Finals
|Golden State Warriors||+425|
|Los Angeles Lakers||+3000|
|Los Angeles Clippers||+10000|
|New Orleans Pelicans||+50000|
|New York Knicks||+50000|
|San Antonio Spurs||+50000|
|Portland Trail Blazers||+75000|
|Oklahoma City Thunder||+10000|
Odds from BetMGM Sportsbook
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