NBA Picks: Can Phoenix Get Some Revenge Against Dallas?

Date IconLast Updated: Sep 29th, 2023
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NBA Picks: Can Phoenix Get Some Revenge Against Dallas?
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To help with your NBA betting, we'll be providing game and prop bet picks each day. 

Dallas Mavericks at Phoenix Suns

7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: Suns -5 | Total: 217.5

The Suns won a league-high 64 games last year but lost to the Mavericks in the Western Conference semifinals, who won the last two games of that series by 30 points each. 

Few, if any, believe the Suns can get back to that sensational form this season. 

The Mavericks are on the rise, and few believe they contend for the conference championship. I am one of them.

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Mavericks are 55-33 ATS for 63% winning bets when the total has been between 210 and 219.5 points over the past two seasons.
  • A subset of the above shows the Mavericks are 34-21 ATS, good for 62% winning bets when on the road against a conference foe
  • From my predictive model, the Mavericks should score more than 110 points and have a better and more efficient assist-to-turnover ratio. In road games played over the past five seasons, the Mavericks are 129-17 SU for 88% wins and 126-20 ATS for 86% winning bets when meeting or exceeding these performance measures.

I am betting on the Mavericks +4.5 points as offered at BetMGM Sportsbook.


Here are some prop bets to consider on today's schedule.

SportsbookOddsProp Bet
PointsBet+100Nets’ Ben Simmons Over 17.5 points and assists
DraftKings-150Mavericks’ Luca Doncic to record a double-double
BetMGM-110Kings’ De’Aaron Fox Over 23.5 points
BetRivers-115Knicks’ Julius Randle Under 21.5 points
BetRivers-115Hawks’ Dejounte Murray Under 37.5 points, assists, rebounds

The player prop bets are 3-0, making $150 for the season wagering $50 per prop.