Trends and Angles You Need to Know for Game 4 of the NBA Finals

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Trends and Angles You Need to Know for Game 4 of the NBA Finals
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The Boston Celtics overcame a Golden State third quarter scoring barrage in Game 3 Wednesday to take a 2-1 series lead in the NBA Finals. 

Now, it is the three-time champion Warriors with their backs against the wall.

Here are some trends and angles you need to know for Game 4 to help with your NBA betting.

  • In any playoff round, the team coming off a win in Game 3 is 160-139 straight-up (SU) and 150-141 against the spread (ATS), including a 140-150-9 Over-Under record.
  • If Game 3 was won by a home favorite by more than 10 points, it goes on to a 38-27 SU record for 59% and 34-31 ATS for 52.3% winning bets, including a 33-29-3 Over-Under record.
  • The winner of Game 3 in any playoff round in what was a tied series goes on to a 56-69 SU record for 45.2% wins and 54-69-1 ATS for 44% winning bets, including a 54-68-2 Over-Under record.
  • In the NBA Finals, these Game 3 are 4-5 SU and 5-3-1 ATS, including a solid 2-7 Over-Under record good for 78% winning Under wagers.
  • In the NBA Finals, teams coming off a double-digit ATS win are a money-losing 20-34 SU and 21-31-2 ATS for 40.4% winning bets, including a 25-18-1 Over-Under record.
  • Home teams in the NBA Finals coming off a double-digit ATS win are 15-10 SU and 12-12-1 ATS, including a highly profitable 9-15-1 Over-Under record, good for 63% winning Under bets.
  • If the total in these games is 216 or fewer points in the Finals, the Under bet is an outstanding 13-6-1, for 68% winning bets.

I will bet the Under, offered by the BetMGM sportsbook at 215 points. 

Note that I think this total has the potential to move higher and my strategy will be to bet 50% of my average bet size now at 215 and look to add another 50% Under bet tomorrow (Friday) if I can get 216.5 points.

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John Ryan

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