NFL Betting: NFC South Situation Angles

Article By John Ryan

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

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Last Updated: Mar 14^th, 2024

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Here is an NFL analytical resource that provides the top situational angles, spanning the past 10 seasons that many teams will find themselves in through the 2022 season. 

These are starting points to the handicapping process each week of the NFL season. 

As you will see below "Best Situational Angle" means that the angle might be a high winning or low losing percentage for the team and situation involved.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

• 2-11 against the spread (ATS) for 15% wins a .500 or worse record on the season and having scored 28 or more points in each of their last two games.
• 10-17-1 ATS for 37% when coming off a win over a divisional opponent.
• 8-1 Under for 89% when playing at home with same season revenge from a previous loss to the current opponent.
• 4-8 ATS for 33% when on the road following back-to-back losses and facing a host with a winning record.
• 0-9 ATS in games played preceding a game on Thursday Night Football.

Established 2013

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Carolina Panthers

• 9-2 ATS for 82% when priced as an underdog and facing an opponent coming off an upset road win.
• 16-9 Under for 64% when coming off a win over a divisional opponent.
• 2-7 ATS for 22% when playing at home with same season revenge from a previous loss to the current opponent.
• 1-10 ATS for 10% when a favorite of not greater than seven points and coming off a straight-up (SU) loss priced as the favorite.
• 8-2 ATS in games played before a game scheduled for Thursday Night Football.

Established 2020

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New Orleans Saints

• 16-7-1 ATS for 70% coming off a game against a divisional foe and having scored in every quarter.
• 6-14 ATS for 30% with a .500 or worse record on the season and having scored 28 or more points in each of their last two games.
• 9-1 ATS for 90% in road games and when coming off two consecutive games failing to score a rushing touchdown.
• 10-4 ATS for 71% in road games following two consecutive games in which their defense allowed 70% completions in each game.
• 13-5-1 ATS after Week 4 and facing an elite offensive team posting a yards-per-point ratio of 13 or lower.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

• 12-4 Over for 75% coming off a game against a divisional foe and having scored in every quarter.
• 10-3 Over priced as a favorite and coming off a game in which their defense held that opponent to 25% or lower third-down conversions.
• 6-0 ATS when coming off a game scoring 35 or more points and facing an opponent coming off a double-digit loss.
• 8-2 Under for 80% in home games playing with revenge and with that opponent coming off a straight-up (SU) loss priced as the favorite.
• 14-7 ATS for 67% when a favorite of six or more points against a conference opponent.

Updated by

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John Ryan founded a cutting-edge sports technology company more than 25 years ago. John has utilized many of the machine learning tools that have applications in other industries to successfully build simulation models, neural networks, and many types of algorithms that have earned strong predictive results. To identify a betting opportunity the fundamental research must support the mathematical projections. John has a proven track record of success as shown in his season records and numerous Top-10 finishes in all Major Sports.

Read Full Bio

John Ryan

Last Updated:   Mar 14^th, 2024

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