NFL Picks: Betting Advice and Predictions for Week 5
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Here are my best NFL bets for Week 5 of the season.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Buffalo Bills
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Bills -14 | Total: 46 points
The line for the Steelers (1-3 straight up, 1-3 against the spread, 2-2 Over-Under) at Bills (3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, 1-3 Over-Under) opened before the season with the Bills favored by 9.5 points.
But with 58% of the bets going on the Steelers, the line moved to 14. The total opened at 47.5 points and has since moved to 46, with 63% of the betting tickets betting the Under.
The Steelers have not been a 14-point underdog since 1951 and have only been priced as a double-digit underdog nine times since 1989. As a double-digit dog, they have a 3-6 SU and ATS, and a 4-5 Over-Under record. This is the third time they have been priced as double-digit dogs in the last two seasons.
But here is a betting system that has hit 92% ATS winning bets.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Steelers in this matchup.
- The Steelers are 47-23 ATS when facing a foe that has won 75% or more of their games.
- The Steelers are 44-27-2 ATS in road games in Week 5-9 since 1989.
- Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is 27-15 ATS in road games and facing a foe averaging 24 or more points per game.
I am betting on the Steelers as a 14-point underdog at BetMGM. I'm also adding a sprinkle on the moneyline at +650 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Miami Dolphins at New Your Jets
Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS
Line: Dolphins -3.5 | Total: 46 points
The Dolphins (3-1 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 Over-Under) have defeated their AFC East division rival New York Jets (2-2 SU and ATS, 2-2 Over-Under) seven of the last eight times. But the last three losses came at MetLife Stadium in 2015, 2017, and 2019.
The Jets have a terrific opportunity here. Miamis is coming off a 27-15 road loss to the Cincinnati Bengals and failed to cover the spread as 3.5-point underdogs.
The Jets are coming off a solid 24-20 road win over the Steelers, priced as 3-point underdogs. That was the seventh time in 31 games priced as a road dog that the Jets won.
A Highly Profitable Situational Betting Angle
Betting on underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points facing a divisional opponent that averages fewer than one forced turnover per game and with that opponent coming off a game in which they did not force a turnover has earned a 12-27 SU record, but 26-12-1 ATS mark. That is good for 68.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
If our dog had a sub-500 record in the previous season, they take off (pun intended) to an impressive 20-8-1 ATS record, good for 71.4% winning bets over the past 10 seasons.
I am betting the New York Jets +3 points at BetMGM.
Other Games I like Against the Spread
Bet on the Eagles -5 at the Arizona Cardinals.
Bet the Falcons -10.5 over the Bucs.
Bet the Saints -6 hosting the Seahawks.
Games I like For Live Betting
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
I like the New York Jets quite a bit and here is an alternative betting strategy to consider for the game.
Bet 50% of your average bet size on the Jets plus the points and then look for the Dolphins to score first, preferably a touchdown, and then add the remaining 50% of the bet amount using the live in-game line, which will have the Jets priced somewhere close to a 7.5-point underdog.
Philadelphia Eagles at Arizona Cardinals
The Eagles are the much better team in this matchup, but that does not imply they score first and never trail.
If the Cardinals get off to a fast start and score a touchdown first, betting the Eagles in-game will be quite attractive at near -3 points.
The Eagles currently have the best offense in the NFL and rank best in second-quarter scoring, averaging 21.25 points per game in the second quarter.
These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks
Bet the Jets (+155) hosting the Dolphins (-175)
Bet the Patriots (-155) over the Lions (+145)
These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks
Under Lions at Patriots 45.5 -110
Over Falcons at Bucs 46 -110
Over Texans at Jaguars 43.5 -110
These Are My Best Prop Bets Picks
My player prop bets are 20-9 this season, making $693 per $50 bet.
- Bet the Chargers Austin Ekeler Over 15.5 longest reception -115 at DraftKings.
- Bet the Falcons Marcus Mariota Over.5 passing touchdowns -225 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Rams Matthew Stafford Over 255.5 passing yards -115 at BetRivers.
- Bet the Rams Jalen Ramsey Over 3.5 tackles +115 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Eagles Jalen Hurts Over 20.5 completions -105 at Unibet.
Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages, and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.
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