NFL Picks: Can the Cowboys Slow Down the High-Flying Eagles?
Here is my Week 6 NFL betting advice. I will take these picks to the window.
Dallas at Philadelphia
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC
Line: Eagles -6 | Total: 41.5 points
The Cowboys (4-1 straight up (SU), 4-1 against the spread (ATS), 0-4-1 Over-Under) will travel to Lincoln Financial Field for an NFC East Division showdown with the Eagles (5-0 SU, 3-2 ATS, 2-3 Over-Under).
The line opened before the start of the NFL preseason at pick-em and the Eagles have received 34% of the bets and 58% of the money. Whenever the number of tickets bet is below 40%, but the money percentage is above 50% creates a bullish lean immediately on that team. That's why the line is -6.
The total opened at 45.5 points and has moved to 41.5 points because 53% of the money bet and only 32% of the tickets wagered on the Under. Here again, the ticket and money percentages reflect the bigger bettors are on the Under.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Under.
- The Cowboys are 19-6 on the Under when facing a solid defense allowing 5.7 or fewer passing yards per attempt since 2004.
- The Eagles are 46-24-1 Under in home games in Weeks 5 through 9 since 2004.
- Cowboys coach Mike McCarthy is 5-0 Under in road games coming off a game with a +2-turnover advantage.
I am betting on the Under 41.5 points as offered at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Buffalo at Kansas City
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS
Line: Bills -2.5 | Total: 53.5 points
The Bills (4-1 SU, 3-1-1 ATS, 1-4 Over-Under) would love nothing more than to avenge last year’s 42-36 playoff loss to the Chiefs (4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, 3-2 Over-Under).
The Bills come in as road favorites, and the total is 54 points.
Situational Trends and Angles
The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Bills.
- Teams that lost on the road in the previous playoffs as a dog and are now on the road against that opponent and are favored are 9-2 SU. That supports a moneyline wager.
- In his career, Chiefs coach Andy Reid is 3-13-1 ATS off a home win but failed to cover the spread.
- The Chiefs are 3-9 ATS in the past three seasons following back-to-back games in which they scored 30 or more points in each game spanning the past three seasons.
I am betting the Buffalo Bills -2.5 points at BetMGM Sportsbook.
Other Games I like Against the Spread
Bet on the Steelers +9 at home over the Bucs
Bet the Falcons +6.5 at home over the 49ers
Bet the Ravens –5.5 on the road at the New York Giants
Other NFL Betting Options for this Week
These are My Live Betting Picks
Cowboys at Eagles
I like the Under quite a bit, and here is an alternative betting strategy to consider.
Bet 50% of your normal bet size on the Under, and then look for both teams to start faster than expected. If they do, add the remaining 50% at 47.5 points during the first half.
These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks
Bet the Bills (-135) at the Chiefs (+125)
Bet the Vikings (-165) over the Dolphins (+145)
These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks
Over Buccaneers at Steelers 45 points -110
Over Jets at Packers 45.5 points -110
Over Cardinals at Seahawks 50.5 points -110
These Are My Best Prop Bet Picks
For the season, player prop bets are 28-15 for 65% wins, making $1,148 per $50 bet.
- Bet the Bengals' Joe Burrow Over 1.5 passing touchdowns -108 at Caesars Sportsbook.
- Bet the Browns' Jacoby Brissett Over 1.5 passing touchdowns +175 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Bet the Eagles' Jalen Hurts Over 19.5 completions +120 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
- Bet the Eagles' Jalen Hurts Over longest completion 38.5 yards -110 at BetMGM Sportsbook.
- Bet the Rams' Tyler Higbee's longest reception Over 18.5 yards +115 at DraftKings Sportsbook.
Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season.
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