NFL Picks: Can the Jets End 13-Game Losing Streak to Patriots?

NFL Picks: Can the Jets End 13-Game Losing Streak to Patriots?
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Here is my Week 11 NFL Best Bets NFL bets that I will take to the window to bet.  

New York Jets at New England Patriots 

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Patriots +3.5 | Total: 38 points 

I am betting on the Jets plus the 3.5 points for 50% of my normal bet size and then 50% using the first half line +2 as offered at BetMGM. 

This Sunday, the New York Jets have their best opportunity to end the longest losing streak to the same opponent currently at 13 consecutive losses 
 

Situational Trends and Angles 

  • The Jets are 37-20 against the spread(65%) in road games when the total is between 35.5 and 38 points.
  • The Jets are 20-8 using the first-half line when playing against a team with a winning record between 51 and 60% and the game occurs in the second half of the season.
  • The Jets are 14-3-1 ATS using the first-half line covering six or seven of the past eight games.

Dallas Cowboys at Minnesota Vikings 

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Dallas -1.5 | Total: 48.5 points 

After all that, I am betting on the Cowboys minus 1.5 points or betting the moneyline at Caesars

Not since 1981 has an 8-1 team been priced as a home underdog, but that is exactly where the Minnesota Vikings find themselves entering this monumental NFC matchup against the Dallas Cowboys. In 2014, the 8-0 Arizona Cardinals were installed as 1.5-point home underdogs to the Detroit Lions and the Cardinals won 14-6 on November 16, 2014. So, the Vikings have an opportunity to prove the betting marketplace was incorrect to make them a dog, but let us dig a bit deeper in this matchup before deciding anything to take to the window. 

Situational Trends and Angles 
The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Cowboys minus points. 

  • The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing 61% or higher completion percentage in games played over the past two seasons.
  • The Vikings are a terrible 12-28 ATS when facing an elite punt return team that is averaging 12 or more yards per return in games played in the second half of the season.
  • The Cowboys are 10-2 ATS when facing a defense that is allowing a horrid 7 or more passing yards per attempt in games played over the past three seasons.

 
Other Games I like Against the Spread

Bet on the Colts +7.5 over the Eagles at Caesars 

Bet the Jets +3.5 over the Patriots at BetMGM  

Moneyline Bets to Consider

Bet the Jets +150 on the moneyline over the Patriots 20% of your normal bet size ($20 for the $100 bettor) 

Bet the Colts +250 on the money moneyline over the Eagles 20% of your normal bet size 
Bet the Lions +145 on the moneyline over the Giants 20% of normal bet size 

Then, 20% of your normal bet size bet a three-team round-robin on the Colts, Jets, and Lions using the moneyline

Then bet a 20% amount on a three-team parlay using the Jets, Lions, and Colts that will pay off in the neighborhood of 20:1 or a win of $408.75 and payout of $428.75 

Prop Bets to Consider 

Sportsbook Odds Prop Bet
BetMGM -210 Jets Zach Wilson will throw a touchdown pass
FanDuel +162 Rams Matthew Stafford to throw 2 touchdown passes
BetRivers -115 Colts Jonathan Taylor Over 85.5 rushing yards
FanDuel +1000 Chargers Keenan Allen to score 2+ touchdowns
Caesars +1700 Lions D’Andre Swift to score 2+ touchdowns

For the season, player prop bets are 57-41 for 59% winning bets, making $1,025 per $50 bet. 

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