NFL Picks: Has New England Righted the Ship?

NFL Picks: Has New England Righted the Ship?
© USA Today

Here is my Week 9 NFL Best Bets NFL bets that I will take to the window to bet. 

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Line: Patriots -6 | Total: 40.5 points

I am betting on the Patriots -6 points as offered at PointsBet.

Somehow, the Patriots (4-4 straight up, 5-3 against the spread, 4-4 Over-Under) have resurrected a season that started 1-3 by winning three of their last four games. 

New England ranks 14 with an 18.91 yards per point offensive ratio, which means they needed to gain 18 yards on average to score a single point. This is a middle-of-the-road performance, but they have improved in every week over the past four weeks. 

The Colts (3-4-1 straight-up (SU), 3-5 ATS, 1-7 Over-Under) rank 13th with a 19.39 yards per point defensive ratio and from my video analysis, I see the Patriots shredding Indy's defense. 

Patriots coach Bill Belichick owns the Colts, winning 18 times in 27 games (67%) and has a 16-10-1 ATS record (62%) including a 16-11 Over-Under mark (59%). The only other coach with more wins against the Colts is Don Shula with 36 wins from 1970 to 1995. 

Situational Trends and Angles

  • The Patriots are 8-0 ATS against teams who force an average of one or fewer turnovers over the past two seasons.
  • Patriots coach Belichick is 143-36 SU (80%) and 101-72-6 ATS (58%) when priced as a 3.5-to-9.5-point favorite.
  • Belichick is 52-18 SU (74%) and 45-24-1 ATS (65%) when facing a struggling team that is averaging 90 or fewer rushing yards per game.

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals

Sunday, 4:05 p.m. ET, FOX

Line: Cardinals -1.5 | Total: 49.5 points

I am betting on the Cardinals minus 1.5 points at Caesars.

The Seahawks (5-3 SU, 5-3 ATS, 4-4 Over-Under) have won three consecutive games and four of their last five to take over the top spot in the NFC West division. They have covered the spread in four of those five games.

The Cardinals (3-5 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 4-4 Over-Under) are struggling and are last in the division.

Before the season, the Circa Sportsbook had the Seahawks lined as 6.5 point underdogs in this matchup and the betting community has steadily bet the Seahawks over the past five weeks. That has moved the line to them now being a 1.5 underdog. 

Making a bet on the Cardinals might appear to be contrarian, but it is where the significant value resides. 

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Cardinals minus the points.

  • Cardinals coach Cliff Kingsbury is 13-5 ATS in Weeks 5 through 9.
  • The Seahawks are 1-8 ATS in road games in the second half of the season in each of the past three seasons.
  • The Seahawks are 27-44 ATS in road games following a double-digit win.

Other Games I like Against the Spread

Bet on the Buccaneers -3, -105 against the Rams at FanDuel.

Bet the Ravens -2.5, -110 against the Saints at FanDuel.

Games I like For Live Betting

Bet Under Titans at Chiefs

  • The strategy is to bet 50% on the Under full-game preflop and then look to add 25% more at 49.5 and 25% more at 51.5 during the first half only.

These Are My Moneyline Bet Picks

Bet the Cardinals -125 against the Seahawks at PointsBet.

Bet the Jets +450 against the Bills at DraftKings.

These Are My Over-Under Bet Picks

Raiders Over 48 points vs. Jaguars -110 at DraftKings.

These Are My Best Prop Bet Picks

Player prop bets are 46-30 for 61% winning bets, making $1,038 per $50 bet.

 Sportsbook   Odds   Prop Bet 
Caesars  -200   Jets Zach Wilson Over.5 passing touchdowns 
  BetRivers   -114   Jets’ Tyler Conklin receiving yards Over 25.5 
  Unibet   -115   Chargers’  Justin Herbert Over 277.5 passing yards 
  BetMGM  +100   Raider’s Derek  Carr Over 1.5 passing touchdowns 
  Caesars   +100   Rams’ Cooper Kupp to score a touchdown 
  Caesars   +120   Titans’ Randy Bullock Over 1.5 field goals made 

Remember, sports betting is a marathon, not a get-rich scheme for one weekend. There will be losing weeks here on these pages and although I have had nine profitable seasons in the past 10, there is no guarantee I will hit 65% ATS again this season. Let’s Go!

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