NFL Picks: Monday Night Football Betting Advice for Sept. 19
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Here are some NFL bets I will take to the window and some of them are premium best bets that are released to my private clients, who went 14-1-1 against-the-spread (ATS) last week in college and NFL best bets.
I went 1-1 ATS with the Top 2 bets (5-1 ATS season), 2-1 ATS with other games I liked on the board, won with the New England Patriots live in-game bet at +2 points, went 2-1 with the moneyline preferred bets (Dallas Cowboys +300 won, Jacksonville Jaguars +170 won, Carolina Panthers +110 lost), and preferred Over-Under bets went 2-0.
Here is the Monday Night preferred best bet.
Tennessee Titans at Buffalo Bills
Today, 7:15 p.m. ET, ESPN
Line: Bills -10 | Total: 47.5 points
The Bills dominated the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams last week and will look to continue that positive momentum against a Titans team they have become familiar with. These two teams have played each other four consecutive seasons and are 2-2.
The Bills are priced as 10-point favorites with a total of 47.5 points. The Titans blew a fourth-quarter lead and lost as 5.5-point home favorites to the New York Giants in Week 1.
Since 1994, double-digit home favorites, are 40-5 straight-up (SU) and 26-19 against the spread (ATS) for 58% winning bets.
If the double-digit home favorite is coming off an extended week of rest (The Bills played Thursday) they are 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS for 67% winning bets.
The Bills are also 8-1-1 ATS for 89% winning bets playing in Monday Night Football games when the total has been 45 or more points.
What Do the Predictive Models Have to Share?
A line favoring the Bills by 10 points and a total of 47.5 points implies a Bills 28.75 to 18.75 win. My predictive model shows a high probability that the Bills will score at least 27 points and have the same or fewer turnovers in this game.
- The Bills are 24-3 SU and 23-4 against the spread (ATS) for 85% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points and having the same or fewer turnovers than the opponent in the last five seasons.
- The Titans are 5-13 SU and 4-14 ATS for 22% winning bets when allowing 27 or more points and having the same or more turnovers than the opponent in games played over the last five seasons.
- The Bills are 8-2 SU and 7-2-1 ATS for 78% winning bets when scoring 27 or more points in a Monday game since 1992.
Live In-Game Betting Strategy
I am betting the Bills 50% of my normal bet size pre-flop at -10 and then will look to get 25% more at -7.5 and the last amount of 25% at -4.5 points.
So, if you are a $100 bettor, the strategy is to bet $50 before kickoff (Pre-Flop) and then add the two remaining $25.00 amounts at the Bills -7.5 and -4.5 points.
Minnesota Vikings at Philadelphia Eagles
Today, 8:30 p.m. ET, ABC
Line: Eagles –2.5 | Total: 50 points
I have an update to the preferred pick betting the Under in tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup between the Vikings and Eagles. I moved my investment from betting on the Under to betting on the Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 points as offered at BetMGM.
Live Betting Strategy
This matchup with the powerful offenses is expected to keep the scoreboard quite busy and here is the money-making opportunity.
I will be looking for the Vikings to score a touchdown first or to attain a 7-point lead during the first half. So, my plan is to bet 50% pre-flop (before kickoff) of my normal bet size and then look to add the remaining 50% amount at pick-em or even a touch better.
I am betting the Giants +5.5 points as offered at BetMGM.
Quick Kicks
Some player prop bets to consider in tonight's games.
- Bet the Bills placekicker Tyler Bass Under 2.5 extra-points made 2.5 +125 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Titans placekicker Randy Bullock Over 1.5 made field goals +140 at BetMGM.
- Bet the Eagles Davonta Smith Over 3.5 receptions +128 at BetRivers.
Check it out and if you have any questions send me a direct message at @JohnRyanSports1 on Twitter.
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