Peach Bowl 2019 Betting Odds & Preview: Florida vs. Michigan

Peach Bowl 2019 Betting Odds & Preview: Florida vs. Michigan

Quick Tips

  • Bet Florida Gators +7.5 with SugarHouse.
  • Bet UNDER 50.5 points to be scored with SugarHouse.

They must be getting used to one another by now. Florida and Michigan have proven the strangest of college bowl bedfellows, set for what will be their fourth postseason showdown in the Peach Bowl on Dec. 29. Gators fans, at least, are hoping for something a little different than what they’ve experienced in the previous three.

That would be watching the Wolverines celebrate, as they did after the Outback Bowl in 2003, the Capital One Bowl in 2008, and the Citrus Bowl in 2016. Throw in a neutral-site victory by the Michigan men in the 2017 season opener — the beginning of the end for Jim McElwain — and it’s a clean sweep by the maize and blue in four career meetings with their chomping challengers to the south.

And the most recent haven’t been pretty: Michigan won 33-17 last season, and 41-7 in 2016. Is another blowout in the offing in Atlanta? The Wolverines are favored by 7.5 points, and the over/under is 50.5.

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Wolverines Against the Spread

Michigan limps into Mercedes-Benz Stadium after getting ambushed at Ohio State, falling 62-39 to the Buckeyes as a 4.5-point favorite. It was the Wolverines’ third straight loss against the spread to end the season, and the last two don’t exactly instill confidence: before the clobbering in Columbus, Jim Harbaugh’s team looked downright pedestrian failing to cover a 28-point spread at home against Indiana.

On the season Michigan is 6-6 against the spread, with 18 points against Nebraska being the largest line they’ve covered against a Power 5 foe. But the games in which the Wolverines covered were more often against quality opponents — like Penn State, Michigan State and Wisconsin — making you wonder if their ATS mediocrity was more a function of big lines against bad teams. In Atlanta, that won’t be the case.

Wolverines Over/Under

Although Michigan’s calling card is the country’s top-rated defense, the Wolverines scored 35 or more points eight times this season. But that defense has been so good, limiting opponents to an average of just 17.6 ppg, that Michigan went over the total just six times.

What a quandary for over bettors: a team that’s capable of scoring tons of points, but gives up so few that even totals in the 40s could be a dicey proposition. Michigan exceeded a total of 50.5, the over/under for the Peach Bowl, just three times.

Gators Against the Spread

Florida went 8-4 against the spread during the regular season, benefitting from a tougher schedule than Michigan which featured a wealth of single-digit lines. The Gators have covered each of their last two, routs of Idaho and Florida State, after losing three straight to SEC competition before that.

The Gators have been an underdog three times previously this season, upsetting Mississippi State (a 7-point favorite) and LSU (a 1-point favorite) while falling to Georgia as a 7-point underdog. Against Power 5 competition, the largest line they’ve covered was 9.5 against Vanderbilt.

Gators Over/Under

For a team with a good defense and an inconsistent offense, the Gators still managed to go over the total seven times in 12 regular-season games, with a push thrown in. They’ve gone under just once in their last seven outings, with most of those totals being in the mid-50s.

The largest total they’ve exceeded against a Power 5 team was 54.5 against South Carolina, a game where they trailed 31-14 before rallying to win. They’ve gone over 50.5, the number for the bowl game, five times.

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2019 Peach Bowl Picks

Florida +7.5

Florida doesn’t boast Michigan’s defense, but the Gators still rank 21st nationally, and are loaded with NFL-quality athletes like end Jachai Polite and corner C.J. Henderson on that side of the ball. Quarterback Feleipe Franks and the Florida offense are unpredictable, and Michigan should win. But the Gators remain capable of keeping this a one-score game just like many of their contests in the SEC. Take the Gators and the points.

Under 50.5 Points to be Scored

Are you ready for a grinder? Statistically, Florida remains one of the better defenses Michigan will face this season, and the Wolverines just didn’t seem like the mselves in their last two games. And after being on the cusp of the College Football Playoff until the last weekend — does Michigan really want to be here? Bet the under at 50.5 points.

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