Major League Baseball Betting Advice for July 5

Major League Baseball Betting Advice for July 5
© USA Today

Throughout the season, we will give you betting advice for a National League and American League game each day and throw in a few quick pitches for player prop bets, Over-Under bets or moneyline bets on other games.

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National League Best Bet

Chicago Cubs +114 at Milwaukee Brewers -130

8:10 p.m. ET

The Chicago Cubs are 5-5 in the 10 games played against the Brewers this season after winning just four of the 15 games last season.

The following betting system has produced 35 units per unit wagered on a 43-31 record, averaging +155 moneyline underdog wager over the past five seasons. 

The requirements are as follows:

  • Bet on road underdogs in July.
  • The road dog is batting no better than .250 on the season.
  • Bet on the team facing a foe with a bullpen that has a 3.75 or lower ERA.

I am taking the Cubs in this game.

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American League Best Bet

Minnesota Twins +125 at Chicago White Sox -135

8:10 p.m. ET

The Chicago White Sox are the most underperforming team in the majors this season and are currently two games under .500 and trail the Minnesota Twins by 5.5 games in the Central Division. 

Even more shocking is that the White Sox have not yet had a three-game home winning streak this season. Only the Oakland A’s and L.A. Angels share that dubious distinction.

All is not lost for the CWS as they will play the next 17 games against divisional foes and six of them against the Twins.

The Trends and Angles That Support a Best Bet

  • Twins are 11-25 when facing a starting pitcher with a 2.90 or lower ERA over the past two seasons.
  • Twins are 23-33, losing 22 units, in road games facing a foe being outscored by .5 or more RPG spanning the last three seasons. 
  • Twins SP Chris Archer is 16-33, losing 20 units, in road games against divisional foes for his career.

I am taking the White Sox in this game. 

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Quick pitches

Here are other bets on today’s schedule to consider.

  1. Bet the Phillies’ Nick Castellanos will have 2+ hits at +195 at FanDuel.
  2. Bet the Pirates’ Jose Quintana Under 2.5 earned runs at +120 at DraftKings.
  3. Bet Boston’s Nick Pivetta Under 2.5 earned runs at –115 at DraftKings.
  4. Bet the Phillies’ J.T. Realmuto to hit a home run at +410 at BetRivers.
  5. Bet the Phillies’ Nick Castellanos to have three or more hits at +1100 at FanDuel.
     
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