NFL Picks: MNF Betting, Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

NFL Picks: MNF Betting, Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers
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Here are my best NFL bets to make for Monday Night Football.

 

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers

Levi Stadium, 8:15 p.m. ET, ESPN

Line: 49ers –2 | Total: 42.5 points

The line in this game between the Rams (2-1 straight up, 1-2 against the spread, 1-2 Over-Under) and 49ers (1-2 SU, 1-2 ATS, 0-3 Over-Under) opened with the 49ers favored by 2.5 points. That 65% of the bets have been going on the Rams has forced the line to dip to 2. 

The total opened at 47.5 points and has since declined to 42.5 points. So far, 70% of the bets placed have been on the Under, but I believe betting action will remain balanced between Over and Under bets at this level and 42.5 points will be more than likely the closing price.

The Rams are the defending Super Bowl Champions, but to repeat is rare. The 49ers lost their quarterback Trey Lance to a season-ending leg injury. Still, their backup Jimmy Garoppolo has significant NFL experience and has a second chance to earn his way back to being a starter in the NFL. They are also without All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams, who is out with a high ankle sprain.

Trying to contain the Rams' pass rush, led by defensive end Aaron Donald, will be a monumental task for the backup Colton McKivitz.

Situational Trends and Angles

The following situational trends and angles support a betting opportunity on the Rams in this matchup.

  • Home favorites, like the 49ers, scoring 17 or fewer points per game, are a money-burning 21-33-2 ASTS for 39% winning bets over the last five seasons.
  • The 49ers, when priced as a home favorite and coming off a loss in which they scored 13 or fewer points, are 9-14 ATS for 39% winning bets over the last 10 seasons.
  • The Rams are 12-3 ATS coming off a divisional game over the last three seasons.

I am betting the Rams in this matchup as a 2-point underdog at BetMGM Sportsbook.

Quick Kicks

These are my best prop bets picks to tonight's game. For the season, player prop bets are 18-7, making $655 per $50 bet.

  • Bet the Rams Matthew Stafford Over 1.5 passing touchdowns –140 at DraftKings.
  • Bet the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo over 28.5 passes –130 at Caesars.
  • Bet the 49ers place kicker Robbie Gold Under 1.5 made field goals –130 at BetMGM.
  • Bet the Rams place kicker Matt Gay Over 6.5 points –109 at Unibet.
  • Bet the Rams Tyler Higbee Over 4.5 receptions +100 at PointsBet.

 

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